Is the Travel Industry Growing?
What the official forecasts and data releases said as of late October 2026.
Start Selling Travel“Is the travel industry growing?” has no single answer, because different parts of travel move at different speeds. The honest way to answer it is to look at a few official sources together. Here is what they said as of late October 2026.
What the Official Sources Say
| Source | Measure | Latest figure (as published) |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. Travel Association’s Spring 2026 forecast | International arrivals to the U.S. | 72.3 million in 2024; 68.3 million in 2025 (down 5.5%); forecast 70.6 million in 2026 (up 3.4%). The 2019 level was 79.4 million. |
| U.S. Travel Association’s Spring 2026 forecast | Total U.S. travel spending (real 2025 dollars) | $1.360 trillion in 2025; forecast $1.374 trillion in 2026 (up 1.0%) |
| U.S. Travel Association’s Spring 2026 forecast | Total trips | Forecast 2.51 billion in 2026 (up 1.7%) |
| ARC’s September 2026 release | U.S. travel agency air ticket sales | $10.2 billion in September 2026, up 18% on September 2025 |
Figures are quoted from the linked documents; the U.S. Travel forecast was released in May 2026 and later editions may revise it.
Reading the Picture
- Total trips and total travel spending are forecast to grow modestly in 2026.
- International inbound travel fell in 2025 and is forecast to recover only part of the way in 2026, still below its 2019 level.
- Agency air sales in ARC’s September 2026 release were well above a year earlier, a sign that advisors remain an important channel for air.
So, is the travel industry growing? Overall, slowly; inbound to the U.S., from a lower base; through agencies, by ARC’s latest measure, strongly. Which answer matters depends on what you sell.
Sources to Bookmark
- U.S. Travel Association’s Spring 2026 forecast (U.S. Travel Association with Tourism Economics).
- The ARC newsroom for monthly U.S. agency air ticket sales.
- The National Travel and Tourism Office’s I-94 arrivals program, built on Department of Homeland Security I-94 records, for international arrivals.
- TSA checkpoint travel numbers, which the agency says it updates Monday through Friday by 9 a.m.
When a headline asks whether the travel industry is growing, check it against these. Then decide what it means for your clients. If the answer makes you want to sell travel yourself, see Be a Travel Agent. Cruise market figures are covered by Cruise Industry Daily.
Travel Growth FAQ
Is the travel industry growing in 2026?
By the official measures it is growing slowly overall, unevenly by segment. The U.S. Travel Association’s Spring 2026 forecast projects total travel spending up 1.0% in 2026 in real terms, and international arrivals recovering 3.4% after a 2025 decline, while ARC reported September 2026 agency air sales up 18% on a year earlier.
Where do these numbers come from?
From the U.S. Travel Association with Tourism Economics, the Airlines Reporting Corporation (ARC), the National Travel and Tourism Office and the TSA. Links to each are on this page.
How often should I check?
TSA updates its checkpoint numbers on weekdays, ARC releases agency air sales monthly, and U.S. Travel’s forecast editions appear a few times a year. A monthly look is enough for most advisors.
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